Amid massive pressure from Israel, the United States, and their allies against Iran, a new opportunity has emerged — one largely overlooked by the Western public. Iran and Turkiye, two major powers in the Islamic world that were historically rivals during the Ottoman and Safavid eras, are now showing signs of rapprochement. The increasingly heated geopolitical situation in the region is pushing Tehran and Ankara to consider a strategic cooperation scenario to safeguard their mutual interests in the Persian Gulf.
Tensions escalated when former U.S. President Donald Trump recently called for Iran to surrender to Israel’s demands. Trump went so far as to openly threaten the citizens of Tehran, urging them to evacuate the capital in anticipation of a possible direct attack. His statements sparked regional anxiety at a time when Western powers are actively seeking to tighten their containment strategy against Iran and even pursue regime change.
In response to this situation, Iran has been encouraged to explore the option of inviting Turkiye to strengthen its military presence in the Persian Gulf. One plan currently circulating involves the possibility of Iran opening its naval bases to Turkish warships, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow strait serves as a vital route for 20 percent of the world’s oil exports, and any tensions in the area have immediate and direct consequences on global oil prices.
If this scenario materializes, Turkiye — a NATO member — would become the first Western alliance country to establish an official military presence in Iran. The situation recalls the 2017 Gulf crisis when Qatar invited Turkish troops onto its soil to counter regional geopolitical pressure. At that time, Turkiye’s military presence successfully deterred an invasion threat against Qatar.
Turkiye’s presence at an Iranian naval base could become a strategic trump card capable of reshaping the balance of power in the region. Ankara would position itself as a balancing force between the Western-Israeli bloc and Iran’s resistance axis. At the same time, Turkiye’s presence would complicate efforts by the U.S. and its allies to pursue total isolation of Tehran — especially if Turkiye actively participates in securing the Strait of Hormuz from sabotage or open conflict.
Historically, relations between Iran and Turkiye — both members of the Developing-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation (D-8) — were long characterized by conflict, particularly during the Safavid and Ottoman periods. The struggle for control over the Caucasus and sectarian differences between Sunni and Shia Islam led to centuries of war. But since the 18th century, the two nations have gradually shifted toward more pragmatic relations, culminating in the 1847 Erzurum peace treaty. Today’s geopolitical realities are again driving these two powers closer — not because of shared ideology, but due to mutual strategic interests.
If such cooperation takes hold, Turkiye’s military presence in Iran could become a decisive factor that limits Israeli and U.S. maneuvers in the region. This move could effectively prevent open warfare, since attacking Iran would risk direct confrontation with Turkish forces — a formal NATO member. Despite Ankara’s often tense relations with NATO, Turkiye still holds a strategically valuable position within the alliance.
The United States and its allies would find it difficult to take drastic action if Turkiye establishes a presence in Iran. Beyond the NATO membership factor, Turkiye’s presence would complicate Western military operations in the region. The Pentagon and Whitehall would undoubtedly reconsider all their options if Ankara actively secures the Strait of Hormuz alongside Tehran. This could serve as an effective obstacle to the long-standing U.S. regime change strategy targeting Iran.
On the other hand, Turkiye stands to gain significant geopolitical advantages from this cooperation. By establishing a base in Iran, Ankara could expand its influence into the Persian Gulf — a region traditionally dominated by the U.S. and its allies. Turkiye could counterbalance regional power dynamics and enhance its bargaining position on issues like Palestine, which has flared up again due to Israeli aggression in Gaza and ongoing threats to Tehran.
Iran’s move to approach Turkiye is also a shrewd strategy to fracture the Western bloc’s consolidation in the region. Iran recognizes that, rather than directly confronting the Western-Israeli coalition, it is more effective to build an alternative alliance with Turkiye — a country that has maintained a uniquely complex relationship with Washington. Though a NATO member, Turkiye under Erdogan has frequently clashed with the U.S. and Europe on issues like Syria, its purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, the canceled F-35 program, and the Palestinian conflict.
If Turkiye’s naval base presence in Iran becomes a reality, a scenario similar to the one in Qatar could repeat itself. At the time, Turkiye’s deployment to Doha successfully thwarted a planned military intervention by an Arab coalition. Now, in the Persian Gulf, Turkiye’s presence could become a decisive factor forcing the U.S., Israel, and their allies to rethink any military action against Iran.
Geopolitical analysts believe that Iran-Turkiye cooperation in the Gulf would deal a heavy blow to the U.S. containment strategy. Washington has long relied on the Gulf bloc and NATO to pressure Iran from multiple fronts. If one of NATO’s own members positions itself inside Iran, the unity of that alliance could fracture — at least regarding military operations in the region.
For Israel, Turkiye’s military presence in Iran would present a serious threat — especially after Pakistan openly voiced support for Iran’s right to defend itself. While Turkiye-Israel relations had previously improved, tensions over Palestine and Gaza have persisted as a major stumbling block. The presence of Turkish troops at an Iranian base could obstruct Israeli air operations over Iranian territory and complicate the intelligence and sabotage missions Mossad has frequently conducted.
Historically, Iran-Turkiye relations have always been dynamic — shifting from open warfare to pragmatic peace. But today’s situation is different. Shared threats from Israel and Western pressure are now forging a new bond between these two powers. Turkiye would gain valuable geopolitical influence, while Iran secures vital strategic protection for its most crucial economic lifeline.
If this alliance materializes, the Persian Gulf’s power map would change significantly. Beyond securing global energy routes, Turkiye’s presence could also strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in every international forum. This may well become Iran’s pathway to breaking the international isolation that the U.S. and its allies have relentlessly maintained.
From a regional perspective, an Iran-Turkiye axis could represent a new model of cooperation within the Islamic world. After being separated for centuries by political and historical divisions, these two powers now have a rare opportunity to form a united front against foreign domination in the region. A new chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics appears to be opening — and the world should start paying attention.
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